A bit of mixed news for PlayStation VR, and VR in general, in just the past week. Previously, I’d written about how PS VR was crushing its competitors, mainly Oculus Rift and HTC Vive, and that remains true. When it comes to competing with other powerful VR headsets, Sony seems to be ahead by a wide margin and I see no sign of that changing any time soon. But according to Jonathan Nafarrete from VR Scout, PlayStation VR sales appear to be slowing down.

 According to SuperData Research’s latest forecast shared with VRScout, VR headset sales did not see a large boost from Black Friday and Cyber Monday despite a number of holiday deals. “Most early adopters have bought in already,” Stephanie Llamas, Director of Research and Insights for SuperData commented. “A minority of those considering it may purchase one for themselves but, at least in terms of PC sets, they will not likely receive it as a gift.” 

I’m frankly not surprised there wasn’t an uptick on sales during Black Friday because there wasn’t that many deals on VR gear. But more so, with something like VR still being a niche/early adopter device, it’s not something that’s on the radar of typical gamers or shoppers and for those who are wanting to get into VR, $50 here and there won’t help sway them one way or another.

 According to the retail analyst, PlayStation VR will sell roughly 745k PlayStation VR units in 2016 (their previous estimate was 2.6 million), which Llamas says is due to Sony taking a more prudent approach in holding back marketing spend until the company can better position the PSVR with their upgraded Pro console system. “Sony is making just enough units available to prove the case for VR, without seeking to fully saturate the market and, instead, build the offering more gradually to ensure a stronger life-cycle,” stated Llamas. “They have also pointed out that VR looks even better on a Pro than a standard or slim PS 4, so the message to most gamers is: Get the Pro now, then the PSVR later.” 

If this is true, and that Sony does want to first focus on pushing PS4 Pro units out there and then PS VR, then it’s simply a smart decision on their end. In order for VR to succeed, each interaction with it needs to be great and while PS VR and PS4 are good, the difference is noticeable when you insert PS4 Pro into the equation. With the launch of PS VR, Sony has demonstrated that they’re capable of getting the tech into consumer hands at a reasonable price with compelling content. Now they can let the market respond to what’s out there while they build up an even healthier library of content through games, apps, and other media.

Once the content is ready, Sony can then refocus on pushing PS VR again and that’s a fine strategy, especially since more PS4 Pros will be out in the wild. After all, Sony knows better than anybody their game pipeline and if nothing thrilling is coming for another 6-9 months, why keep pushing the headset? The success or failure of PlayStation VR was never going to be determined in its first three months and I’ve yet to see any signs that would make me be worried about its future. In fact, all the developers I spoke to at PSX seem to be quite eager and pleased with the current status of the platform, and as every console launch has shown, there tends to be a major leap in quality between the first wave of games that are released on launch and what follows.

 “Without the ‘killer app’ and the slow, steady release of AAA content, [Sony] will release less than 1M devices until they have content they feel confident will bring in the praise they want,” stated Llamas. “They can afford to take it slow since they have no competition for now, so their supply and sales will rise steadily into 2017 as opposed to riding the seasonal wave.” 

Between increased sales of PS4 Pro in the next 6-9 months and second generation VR games being available, Fall 2017 will be a far better time to measure the pulse of PlayStation VR than right now. Are you worried about PlayStation VR sales or do you think things are going fine for the new hardware?